Alright so I finally got around to finishing my predictions for this year’s high school basketball state champs here in West Virginia. Figured y’all might wanna see my thought process, so here’s how I basically wrestled this thing into existence, step by step.
Started off simple. I grabbed my big ol’ notebook – the one filled with scribbles from all the regular season games I actually bothered attending. Coach always said “watch ’em in person,” and ain’t that the truth? Stats online just don’t show you the grit, you know? So yeah, flipped through pages and pages. Remembered Parkersburg South nearly pulling off that crazy comeback against Martinsburg back in January. Man, that was something. Took notes right after on their defense tightening up when the pressure was on. Gotta respect that.
The Number Crunching Headache
After drowning in my own scribbles, I figured I should maybe look at some actual numbers too. Seemed like the thing to do. Pulled up the statewide stats database for Triple-A, Double-A, and Single-A. Took forever to load, naturally. Started writing down win-loss records, point differentials, how teams did on the road – that kinda boring stuff. Made a mess of sticky notes all over my desk. Had points per game scribbled on yellow ones, defensive rebounds on pink… looked like a rainbow exploded.
Hitting the Wall
Sat there staring at my beautiful sticky-note disaster and realized… stats only tell half the story. Felt stuck. Like trying to solve a puzzle with half the pieces missing. So I did the obvious thing: called up my buddy Mike who knows literally every coach in the southern part of the state. We talked for like an hour. Heard the lowdown on injuries I’d missed, rumors about players maybe transferring (though who really knows?), and how certain teams practice. That chat changed everything. Started crossing out names I’d penciled in earlier based purely on the numbers. Felt kinda dumb for trusting just stats before.
Putting It All Together (Barely)
Next came the messy part. Spread out my notebook, the sticky notes, and my scratch pad with notes from Mike. Tried seeing patterns. Which team consistently showed up when it mattered? Who choked in big moments? Looked back at how teams did in last year’s tournament too – sometimes history repeats, right? Argued with myself for a solid afternoon.
Ended up narrowing it down for each class, but Triple-A was brutal. Martinsburg looked solid stats-wise, but they got knocked out early last year. Wheeling Park felt like they could grind it out, but did they have enough firepower? Kept flipping back and forth. It felt like trying to predict the weather – you make your best guess.
- Triple-A: Went with Martinsburg in the end. Saw them play in Charleston last month, that hunger was legit. Numbers backed it up mostly, and Mike said they fixed their late-game issues.
- Double-A: Chapmanville. No contest for me. Saw them twice. Pure hustle, and that senior guard? Unstoppable when hot. Stats screamed consistency.
- Single-A: This one surprised me. The numbers leaned one way, but watching Tucker County claw back against bigger schools twice sealed it. Guts over stats on this one. Mike confirmed their chemistry is unreal.
Honestly? I feel pretty good about Martinsburg and Chapmanville. Tucker County? That’s my gut pick, and guts are loud. Sent this list off to Mike last night, fully expecting him to laugh. He didn’t. Maybe we’ll get lucky. Done staring at sticky notes now. We’ll see what happens come tournament time!