Okay, so, I got this idea to mess around with making my own NFL mock drafts, just for kicks. I never really thought about how accurate these things are, or who even does them, but I figured, why not give it a shot?
I started by looking up some info on how this whole mock draft thing works. Turns out, it’s a pretty big deal for some folks. I found out that there’s this guy, Mel Kiper, who’s like the king of mock drafts. People actually follow his predictions. According to some report from May 3, 2021, he’s a big name in this field. Then I stumbled upon another article from December 15, 2023, saying that even though it’s super hard to predict these drafts right, Kiper’s drafts are still a big deal for football fans. I mean he is on ESPN and other shows talking about his picks and predictions.
Then I got curious about how accurate these drafts usually are. I read that most mock drafts this year were actually pretty on point, which was kind of surprising. That is what the article from May 1, 2023, said. It mentioned that the accuracy was higher than in previous years. It got me thinking, maybe I can do a decent job at this.
So, I dug a little deeper and found out who’s considered the most accurate draft expert. It’s this guy named Jared Smola, who apparently won some award for being the most accurate over a three-year period. That’s according to Fantasy Pros, whatever that is. Smola works for Draft Sharks, which sounds kind of cool. It seems he has inside information that other people might not have.
The article also mentioned how, back in the day, these draft analysts used to get info directly from the teams, but then teams stopped sharing as much. That made the mock drafts less accurate. It makes sense, though. If you’re a team, you don’t want everyone knowing your plans, right?
Then it hit me how big of a deal Kiper is. The article said his knowledge is unmatched and he’s often right about 80 percent of the time in his first-round picks. That’s insane! He’s on TV and radio, like SportsCenter and ESPN Radio, all the time. It’s like he’s the ultimate authority on this stuff.
Armed with all this newfound information, I decided to dive in. I spent hours, maybe even days, researching players, team needs, and all that jazz. I made spreadsheets, I watched highlights, and I even started arguing with myself about who should go where. I made a simple spreadsheet and started to just put information about players I thought were good on there. I kept researching and moving names around.
My first few attempts were all over the place. I had quarterbacks going to teams that already had good ones, and I completely ignored some positions that teams desperately needed. But I kept at it, refining my process, and trying to think like a general manager. Each day I added new information and watched new highlights. It was starting to get a little out of control how much time I spent doing this.
Eventually, I got to a point where I felt somewhat okay about my mock draft. It wasn’t perfect, but it made a lot more sense than my first try. I even shared it with a couple of friends who are into football, and they didn’t laugh me out of the room, which was a good sign. They gave me some feedback about what they thought and I took it all in and went back to working on it.
I realized that doing a mock draft isn’t just about picking the best players. It’s about understanding team strategies, predicting trades, and even guessing how players will perform in the pros. It’s like a giant puzzle, and I was trying to put all the pieces together.
In the end, I didn’t become the next Mel Kiper or anything, but I had a blast doing it. I learned a ton about football, and I gained a new appreciation for the people who do this for a living. It’s way harder than it looks.
So, if you’re ever bored and looking for a new way to engage with football, I’d recommend giving this mock draft thing a try. It’s fun, it’s challenging, and who knows, maybe you’ll discover you’re a draft guru in the making. Just don’t blame me if you get addicted and start spending all your free time on it, like I did!