Alright, let me walk you through how I put together my 2025 AAC basketball predictions. Started this whole thing back in January when winter workouts began. First step was setting up alerts for every AAC team’s social media accounts and local newspapers. Woke up every morning scrolling through practice videos and injury reports like it was my morning coffee ritual.

Tracking Player Movements
When transfer portal madness hit in March, I printed out rosters and taped ’em to my wall. Used red marker for outgoing players, green for new transfers. Memphis had so many red circles it looked like a crime scene photo! Took me three whole weekends to cross-check each player’s stats with their new team’s playing style. Remember texting my buddy at 2am saying “Bro, East Carolina’s new point guard can’t shoot threes to save his life” after watching his junior college highlights.
Scouting Trips
Drove over 800 miles last April hitting campuses:
- Wichita State: Sat courtside watching their big man during spring drills. Dude couldn’t hit free throws consistently – noted that in my yellow legal pad
- FAU: Their freshman class moved way faster than last year’s squad during scrimmages. Almost got whiplash following the ball
- UAB: Snuck into an alumni game wearing a school hoodie. Old security guard didn’t blink twice
These road trips gave me way better feels than just reading box scores. Saw team chemistry stuff numbers can’t show – like when Temple’s players all stayed late rebounding for each other.
Crunching Numbers
Come May, I imported five seasons of AAC stats into spreadsheets. Spilled coffee on my keyboard making formulas to track:
- How many points teams lost to graduation
- Avg experience level of starting lineups
- Home vs away performance gaps last three seasons
Almost fried my laptop comparing Tulsa’s defensive slides – their efficiency dropped like crazy against fast-paced teams. Started seeing patterns around Memorial Day when I noticed USF always choked in close games (0-7 in OT since 2022!).
The Gut Check
Early June rolls around and my spreadsheet spit out this boring list that felt off. So I grabbed all my notes and disappeared to my garage for two days. Made index cards for every team with strengths/weaknesses and kept rearranging them on my workbench. Remember slamming my fist when realizing my stats had SMU too low – their new coach ran that fast-break system perfectly at his last job.
Finalizing Picks
Cross-referenced everything during July summer league games. Revised my top five three times after watching Cincinnati’s new recruit drop 28 against Temple’s B-team. When August hit, I was confident enough to lock in:
- 1. FAU (returning starters + that insane speed)
- 2. Memphis (portal losses hurt but freshman class is scary)
- 3. UAB (veteran squad that finally clicks)
Whole process took seven months and three burnt-out pens. Had to redo all my rebound projections when Tulane’s center broke his wrist in July – that’s why you never finalize too early! These AAC teams keep us guessing every single year.