Alright, so, I’ve been getting into fantasy baseball lately, and let me tell you, it’s a whole different ball game when you’re working with a salary cap. I mean, you can’t just stack your team with all the superstars, right? You gotta be smart about it, find those value picks, and make sure your budget is balanced. So, I wanted to figure out how to come up with these salary cap values. Here’s what I did:
First, I gathered data. I knew I needed player projections, and not just any projections, but ones based on my league’s specific scoring settings. The default settings weren’t going to cut it. I used some of the more well-known projection systems. I ended up with a big spreadsheet of players with their projected stats.
Digging into the Data
Next, I figured out replacement levels. This is basically figuring out the stats of a typical player you could pick up off the waiver wire during the season. I looked at how many players at each position get drafted in my league and used that to determine the replacement level. For example, if 120 outfielders get drafted, the 121st outfielder’s projected stats would be my replacement level for outfielders. It sounds a bit complicated, but it’s not too bad once you wrap your head around it.
With replacement levels in hand, I then calculated each player’s value above replacement. This was pretty straightforward. I subtracted the replacement-level stats from each player’s projected stats. For instance, if a player was projected to hit 30 home runs and the replacement level for his position was 15, his value above replacement would be 15 home runs. I did this for all the relevant statistical categories based on my league’s rules.
Determining Dollar Values
Now, here comes the tricky part: converting these stats into dollar values. I started by figuring out the total amount of money available in the auction draft. Then, I looked at the total projected stats for all the drafted players, minus the replacement-level stats, of course. This gave me the total “pool” of stats being paid for in the draft.
To assign dollar values, I divided the total money by the total stats in each category. If there was $26,000 to spend and 2,000 total home runs above replacement, each home run would be worth $13. I did this for each category, coming up with a dollar value per stat.
Finally, I multiplied each player’s value above replacement in each category by the corresponding dollar-per-stat value. Then I added up all those values to get the player’s total projected salary cap value. Whew! That was a mouthful.
- Gather data: Get player projections based on league scoring settings.
- Figure out replacement levels: Determine the stats of a typical waiver wire player.
- Calculate each player’s value above replacement: Subtract replacement-level stats from player projections.
- Convert stats into dollar values: Divide total money by total stats in each category.
- Multiply player’s value above replacement by dollar-per-stat value: Add up values to get total salary cap value.
It was a bit of work, but now I have a customized set of salary cap values that I can use for my draft. It’s not perfect, of course, there’s still plenty of guesswork involved, but I feel a lot more prepared. Hopefully, this helps me make some smart picks and build a winning team!
It’s definitely a learning process, and I’m sure I’ll tweak my methods in the future. But for now, I’m excited to put these values to the test. Wish me luck!