Alright, so I woke up this morning buzzing about the 2025 girls state tournament kicking off soon. Like every year, I gotta get my predictions sorted before the madness starts. Grabbed my coffee, fired up the laptop, and dove straight into the data mess.
The Data Hunt Begins
First things first, I needed to find out who actually made it to 3A this year. Hit up the state high school athletic association site – total pain sometimes, man. Found the brackets eventually. Wrote down all 16 team names, double-checking the spelling cause these things matter later.
My next move? Stats, stats, stats. Needed regular season records, playoff runs, points scored, points allowed – the whole shebang. Knew the usual sites that track high school ball, but dang, wasn’t expecting so many different places!
- School Sites: Some were actually updated! Others? Last updated like 2023. Seriously? Had to dig through old news articles sometimes to find scores.
- Fan Forums & Local Papers: This is where the gold was, honestly. People arguing about who played well against who, mentioning injuries, or just raving about some player. Scrolled through way too many pages.
- MaxPreps & Similar: Okay, these were better. At least had standings and scores mostly correct. Still, found a couple of teams where the record didn’t match what I saw in the playoffs – weird.
Building the Spreadsheet Beast
Opened a fresh Google Sheet – my war room. Threw down the team names down the side. Then made columns for:
- Overall Win-Loss
- Conference Record
- Playoff Wins (and how dominant)
- Points Per Game For/Against
- Strength of Schedule (guessed on this based on who beat who)
- Any key injuries? (Heard whispers on forums)
- My gut feeling (Yeah, I added this column. Don’t judge.)
Started plugging in the numbers. Spent a solid hour copying, pasting, adjusting formulas, screaming internally when a number looked totally off and I had to double-source it.
The Video Evidence
Numbers only tell part of the story, right? Needed to see these teams play. Headed straight to YouTube and Hudl.
- Hudl: Found a bunch of highlights… but highlights lie! Everyone looks like Jordan in highlights. Needed full games or extended clips.
- YouTube: Jackpot! Found some local news station clips covering playoff games – way better context. Also found streamed games from earlier tournaments or big rivalry nights. Watched maybe 4 hours worth? Paid attention to:
- How they handled pressure defense.
- Who stepped up when the game got tight.
- Coaching adjustments in the 4th quarter.
- Team chemistry – you can’t fake that on the court.
The Ranking Meltdown
Time to put ’em in order. Started with the easy ones. Defending champs? Obviously in the top 3. Team that went undefeated? Also top 3. Team that nearly got knocked out in the first playoff round? Moving them down.
Then hit the tough middle packs. Team A has a slightly better record, but Team B beat the #1 seed in their conference. Team C lost their star guard a month ago but somehow looked better in the last game I saw… What?!
Stared at my screen. Moved team names up and down like I was playing musical chairs. Drank more coffee. Checked specific game results again. Argued with myself: “But that win was against a weak schedule!” vs “Yeah, but they beat them by 30 points consistently!”
Got stuck for ages on spots #4 through #7. Kept changing my mind. Finally decided:
- The Clear Top Tier: Northwood, Summit Academy South, Lakeview East. Just looked dominant all season, stacked talent, proven under pressure.
- The Dangerous Challengers: Riverside Tech, Pinehurst Prep. Maybe one weird loss, but explosive offense (Riverside) or rock-solid defense (Pinehurst). Could beat anyone.
- The Wild Cards: Harbor Heights, Jefferson Township. Streaky. When they’re hot, look like contenders. When they’re cold… yikes. Hardest to predict.
Pulled the trigger. Hit “publish” on the blog post with my rankings and reasoning. Felt that mix of excitement and dread, like always. Can’t wait to see how wrong (or hopefully, a little right?) I am! That’s why we watch the games.