Why I Got Into Predicting The RPI Baseball Season
Honestly? It started because last month I spilled coffee on my old scorebook. While flipping through soggy pages, I realized I’d tracked every RPI game since 2023. Got me thinking – why not project the 2025 season?
Digging Up Old Numbers
First thing I did was grab three notebooks from my bookshelf:
- Lineup changes scribbled on pizza receipts
- Pitcher stats in my daughter’s crayon-covered math notebook
- Weather notes from games where my umbrella flipped inside-out
Made a huge mess spreading papers everywhere. Found 2024’s final record was 28-18 after dumping everything on my kitchen table.
Counting Returning Players
Took my dog for walk while mentally checking off players:only 7 starters coming back. Remembered sophomore pitcher Mike’s shoulder injury – hope he recovers but gotta be realistic. Wrote down two incoming freshmen catchers because our main guy graduated. Felt kinda nervous about that spot.
Schedule Shenanigans
Checked conference schedules against last year’s opponents. Saw two brutal back-to-back road trips in April. Called my buddy whose kid plays for rival team – gossiped about their star pitcher going pro. Crossed their home game off our likely win column with a big red marker. Drew frowny faces on toughest matchups.
Math Time
Made super basic formula in my head:
- Last season’s wins: 28
- Minus 3 wins for losing senior slugger
- Plus 2 wins for weaker non-conference teams
- Minus 4 wins for new catchers adjusting
Then added random gut feeling +1 win because coach’s Twitter says training intensity doubled.
The Final Count
After erasing chalkboard three times: Predicted 24 regular season wins. Losses probably hit 22 after conference tournaments. My wife walked in and said “that’s fewer than last year!” – yeah well, rebuilding year sucks.
Why This Probably Wrong
Baseball’s tricksy:
- Could win 5 extra games if Mike’s arm heals fast
- Might collapse like house cards if rain delays mess with our rhythm
- Those freshman catchers? Might become superstars overnight
Told my neighbor this prediction – he laughed and bet me burgers I’m off by 4 games. Challenge accepted.